Weather conditions, particularly hot, dry weather and wind that spreads flames, contribute significantly to the ignition and growth of wildfires. Lake Powell, the lake created by Glen Canyon Dam, at two points in time about four years apart. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report covers observed and potential future changes in the North American Monsoon. The southwestern desert is hot, with winter daytime temperatures in the lower 60s and average summer daytime temperatures between 105 and 115F. Center:As warm air rises, cool air sinks. Photograph by Bill Morrow (Flickr;Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license). And yet another element of the monsoon system that needs more study to resolve. Where the land was exposed, deposits of dust (loess) accumulated and were blown across much of the Southwest. The geography and climate of the southwestern U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains (in other words, in the Great Plains region in Colorado and New Mexico) are nearly ideal for their formation of thunderstorms and tornados, especially in the summer. This section covers the climate of the southwestern U.S. through the Phanerozoic, from about 541 million years ago to the recent. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). Here, oases with large trees, large colonies of burrowing animals, and reptile trackways punctuated the otherwise dry and sandy landscape. A strong difference in air temperature at different heights creates instability; the warmer the air near the surface is relative to the air above it, the more potential (stored) energy the warm air has to move up, and the more potential for a storm. Thanks for visiting the North American Monsoon region with me! Environmental Definitions of the Southwest - nps.gov Soil moisture, ground water, and streamflow are part of Drought Monitor calculations (Figure 2), and they are all sensitive to human activities. Green areas mean drought is likely to end. 2. The Southwest, already the driest region in the United States, has become even drier since the mid-20th century, particularly on the hottest days . Studies show that the southwestern states' climate is changing right now and that change has accelerated in the latter part of the 20th century. An official website of the United States government. 2021. Source:FEMA National Risk Index. Image adapted from an image by Scenarios for Climate Assessment and Adaptation, first published in The Teacher-Friendly Guide to the Earth Science of the Southwestern US. Paleontological Research Institution Special Publication 38, Ithaca, NY, 200 pp. It smoldered beneath the ground as a dormant holdover, sleeper, or zombie fire until April, when it flared up and grew into a wildfire, an almost unprecedented occurrence in the Southwest. The state's mountainous areas, however, have climate characteristics that more closely follow those found in the Colorado Rockies. In a broad sense, the Southwests climate is mostly dry and hot, with much of the region characterized as arid. Photo by Daniel Mayer (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, image resized). Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:13. For many of us, the word monsoon conjures images of heavy rain lasting for months. Left photoandright photoby NPS/Michael Quinn (Grand Canyon National Park via flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, images cropped and resized). For temperature, the 2020 monsoon was the hottest on record for the Southwest with an average temperature of 77.1 F, significantly beating the previous record of 76.8 F in 2011 (average is 74.3 F). The warmer the air near the surface is relative to the air above it, the more potential energy it has to move up. Cold continental conditions dominate the higher altitudes, especially within the Rocky Mountains. Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook - National Oceanic and Asia, Climate of Southwest | SpringerLink Right:Graph of the lake's changing level over time. Pangaea was completed when North America finally collided with Gondwana. 3. Extent of the Western Interior Seaway during the Cretaceous Period. These changes threaten economic productivity, public health, and the sustainability of Indigenous communities. Climate Impacts in the Southwest | Climate Change Impacts | US EPA The event devastated the Southwest, shifting a densely forested landscape to one primarily covered with fast-growing herbs and ferns. At any rate I'd just like to point out a potential clue to your springtime predictability barrier problem. Record high temperatures for the Southwest range from 53C (128F) in Arizona to 47C (117F) in Utah, while record low temperatures range from 56C (69F) in Utah to 40C (40F) in Arizona. In the late Eocene, the Earth began to cool, and global temperatures fell sharply at the boundary between the Eocene and Oligocene epochs (approximately 35 million years ago), due in part to the separation of South Americas southern tip from Antarctica. Brown indicates areas where experts forecast drought will persist or worsen. Copyright 2021 Paleontological Research Institution. Thanks to the region's high temperatures and low precipitation levels from summer 2020 through summer 2021, the current drought has exceeded the severity of a late-1500s megadrought that previously had been identified by the same authors as the driest in 1,200 years. The average annual temperature in most of the Southwest is predicted to rise 2.2 to 5.5C (4 to 10F) by 2100. Seems likely that conditions in the GM may influence annual variations in the monsoon. The American Southwest, here defined as the area between 95W and 125W and 25N and 40N, 9 covers over four million square kilometers. The impacts of the monsoon go beyond just rainfall amounts. The Wave, a series of intersecting U-shaped troughs eroded into Jurassic NavajoSandstone within the Paria Canyon-Vermilion Cliffs Wilderness, Arizona. A strong temperature difference at different heights creates instability. Photo of USNM P 38052 by Frederic Cochard (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain). Here at the ENSO Blog, were always curious about the role of ENSO (El Nio/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Nio/La Nia system). Monsoon region averaged over all land gridpoints, 20N37N, 102W115W. UK regional climates - Met Office A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Nio, La Nia, and their impacts. The Southwest has a very unique culture, climate, and geography. Climate | Arizona State Climate Office One especially alarming detail about the Calf Canyon fire is that it was originally set in January 2022. Precipitation also varies widely. The Southwest's Triassic to Jurassic dune deposits are some of the most extensive in the world, and the dune field that existed during the Jurassic may be the largest in Earth history. Title: Arizona Monsoon Thunderstorm. Right:Dolichometoppus productus. Cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Yuma, and Palm Springs have average highs over 100 F (38 C) during the summer months and lows in the 70s or even 80s. Photo by Dr. David Goodrich, NOAA (NOAA Photo Library ID wea04192, NOAA's National Weather Service, via flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). Burning those fossil fuels releases carbon into the atmosphere, which warms the Earth. Summer rains fall almost entirely during brief but intense thunderstorms on the Great Plains, although the occasional hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico may push heavier precipitation inland. Positive values represent wetter-than-average conditions, while negative values represent drier-than-average conditions. The distance between Santa Fe and Las Vegas, New Mexico, is about 65 kilometers (about 40.5 miles). . The Palmer Index is calculated from precipitation and temperature measurements at weather stations, and has been used widely for many years. Columbian mammoth (Mammuthus columbi) tracks, Pleistocene, White Sands National Park, New Mexico. The satellite loop in this post shows Gulf of Mexico moisture moving west into the monsoon region. Climate at a glance. Sand dunes started to become widespread. Raucous summer thunderstorms characteristic of the monsoon season are spotty, while drizzly winter storms last longer and engulf large portions of the region. Photo by James Bo Insogna. During winter months, daytime temperatures may average 70 degrees F, with night temperatures often falling to freezing of slightly below in the lower desert valleys." Photo by Kenneth Carpenter (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and resized). Changes in atmospheric pressure during the late fall and winter can lead to an accumulation of haze. A major contributing factor to this event was a geological change that occurred far to the south. Shiprock, a volcanic monadnock in San Juan County, New Mexico, rises roughly 483 meters (1583 feet) above the desert plain. Photo source:National Park Service (public domain). Average is based on 19792020 using CPC Unified data. Is the tropical storm season done for this part of the country? Photos of YPM IP 529539 by Jessica Utrup, 2015 (Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History/YPM,CC0 1.0 Universal/Public Domain Dedication, viaGBIF.org). Fossils of a cycad (Dioonopsis praespinulosa) from the Paleocene Castle Rock Flora, Colorado. Go to the full list of resources about the climate of the southwestern U.S. Go to the full list of general resources about climate. Photo of USNM PAL 165239 by Crinoid Type Project (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain). The daily range between maximum and minimum temperatures sometimes runs as much as 50 to 60 degrees F during the drier periods of the year. Global temperatures fell further in the late Miocene thanks to the formation of the Himalayas. Climate of the Southwestern United States Earth@Home Every part of the Southwest experienced higher average temperatures between 2000 and 2020than the long-term average (18952020). Bear Lake and Glacier Gorge, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, 2011. Colorado has a generally cool and continental climate with low humidity. Glaciers in the Colorado Rockies are sustained largely by avalanches and wind-blown snow. Average annual preciptiation for the southwestern U.S. See you then! Also extreme dryness which means days & weeks on end without rain. Alaska weather and daylight varies wildly by region and season, from short-sleeves in summer to down jackets in winter; from 7 rainy days in May in Southcentral to 17 rainy days in the Inside Passage. During much of the year, the prevailing wind over northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico is westerly (blowing from the west) and dry. Check out Toms recent post on the drought in Arizona to understand more about how drought works in this region. This figure uses the U.S. Drought Monitor classification system, which is described in the table in the Droughtindicator. Lake Mead, the lake created by the Hoover Dam, at two points in time about 21 years apart. As Pangaea reached its greatest size during the early Triassic, the monsoons intensity increased, and the vast dune deserts of the late Permian were replaced by rivers and floodplains. Rainfall, as anyone who has read the ENSO Blog before will know, is an extremely complicated thing to predict! Modified fromFigure 11 in Kirby et al. However, while the effect of warming on the storms is uncertain, temperatures have been increasing. The Great Plains receive warm, moist air moving north from the Gulf of Mexico, and cold, dry air moving in from the Rocky Mountains and the northern U.S. Where these air masses meet, vigorous mixing causes thunderstorms. PRI is a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Photo by James St. John (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license). Climate at a glance. Scale bar = 5 centimeters (about 2 inches). These deposits, including the Navajo Sandstone, are responsible for spectacular scenery in the national parks and recreation areas of northernmost Arizona and southern Utah. This fire, which started as two separate fires that merged, began in April 2022 and has since burned more than 138,000 hectares (340,000 acres) of land and over 300 homes. Taken on September 23, 2017. Time-series graph of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from southwestern states, showing rising emissions from 1970 to around 2008, followed by a decreasing trend from 2008 to 2019. Streamflow totals for the decade of 2001-2010 in the Great Basin, Rio Grande, and Colorado River were between 5% and 37% lower than their 20. What happened that make TS Nora so underwhelming? This chart shows the percentage of land area in six southwestern states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) classified under drought conditions from 2000 through 2020. Map modified from amap by Chiche Ojeda (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and modified). The average amount of precipitation for the United States is 85.6 centimeters (33.7 inches). P. Natl. Southwest Increased heat, drought, and insect outbreaks, all linked to climate change, have increased wildfires. Photograph by Julia Manzerova (Flickr;Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license; image resized). Higher atmospheric moisture content has also been correlated with an increased incidence of tornados and winter storms. Average temperatures found in the Southwest tend to decrease northward, which is largely the influence of latitude and elevation. Some areas were more than 2F warmer than average (see Figure 1). Accessed March 2021. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx. The thicker line is a nine-year weighted average. Drought outlook for the Lower 48 U.S. states in August 2022. The thunderstorm begins. The lack of moisture in the air allows heat trapped in the earth during daylight hours to rapidly radiate away, leading to cool evenings. Las Cruces is located in the Basin and Range region of New Mexico. NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin (NASA Earth Observatory,used following NASA's image use policy). Temperatures in the southwest region average greater than states up North, because there isn't as much water vapor in upper level winds to screen direct sunlight. Arizona's climate is influenced by three main topographical areas: the high Colorado Plateau (about 15202130 meters or 50007000 feet in elevation), the rugged mountains to the west (27403660 meters or 900012000 feet high), and the low southwestern mountains with desert valleys (as low as 30 meters or 100 feet above sea level). How would that result in less total JulyAugust rain? Good question! For example San Diego county has a population of azalea otherwise not seen for hundreds of miles to the north. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:15, Science & information for a climate-smart nation. Dry conditions are common throughout the Great Plains, Colorado Plateau, and Basin and Range. The inner canyon temperatures are extreme and hot, with a lower elevation of about 2400 feet (732 meters). In 2000-2003, the combination of severe drought and unusually high temperatures led to a significant die-off of pion pines in the Four Corners region of the Southwest. Figure by Climate.gov. A crinoid (Ibexocrinus lepton) from the Ordovician Kanosh Shale, Millard County, Utah. As the continents moved closer to their modern positions, the Southwest experienced a hot and humid tropical climate. More on that later Now, lets take a sojourn through some North American Monsoon basics (1). With the start of the Paleozoic era, climates across the world were warm, and North America was located in the low and warmer latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Photo by Center for Land Use Interpretation(Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 license, image resized). The main features that influence the areas climate are latitude, regional topography, and a low atmospheric moisture content that leads to quick evaporation. Right:Sabalites, a palm leaf. Photo credits: 1916 photo from USGS (public domain), 2013 photo by daveynin (flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image resized). Onion Creek salt diapir, a salt dome exposed at the surface at Fisher Towers, Utah. The map in Figure 1 shows how average annual temperatures in the Southwest from 2000 to 2020differed from the average over the entire period since widespread temperature records became available (18952020). Left:Trilobites identified asDolichometoppus productusandAlokistocare althea. Images by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory (used following NASA's image use policy). See the Drought indicator for more information about these indices. Photo by Archaeopoda (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, image cropped, resized, and labeled). Scale bar = 1 centimeter (about 0.4 inches). Data for Figure 2 were provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center. Warm, moist air from the south occasionally but infrequently moves into Colorado during the summer. By comparison, the average high and low temperatures for the entire United States are 17C (63F) and 5C (41F), respectively. (Going forward, to avoid having to say northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico over and over, Ill refer to this area as the monsoon region.). One recent study explored the relationship between the monsoon and wildfires in the Southwest and northern Mexico, finding that monsoon rains were important for ending wildfires. (1) The North American Monsoon, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by David Adams and Andrew Comrie, provides a comprehensive overview of the North American Monsoon and related research through the late 20th century. Temperature and Precipitation | CLIMAS In the Southwest, average precipitation ranges from only 34 centimeters (13.4 inches) in Utah to 39.9 centimeters (15.7 inches) in Colorado, which reflects the area's general aridity. The Southwest contributes significantly to climate change. The intensification recorded since about the 1970s has been partly driven by greenhouse gas emissions (medium confidence). In 8.4, What are the projected water cycle changes?, the summary statement is there is low agreement on a projected decrease of NAmerM precipitation, however there is high confidence in delayed onsets and demises of the summer monsoon.. Later in the Jurassic, the climate became more moderate; dune fields were replaced by rivers and floodplains populated by a rich dinosaur fauna (exemplified by the Morrison Formation) and large trees along rivers, streams, and grasslands. Photoandreconstructionby National Park Service/NPS (public domain). Left (1):Leaves of a seedling. Data source: NOAA, 20214Web update: April2021, Key Points | Background | About the Data | Technical Documentation. The inset image is a shaded relief image that shows the edge of the crater on the Yucatn Peninsula with sinkholes in the rock surrounding it. Eventually, a sheet of sea ice formed over the Arctic, and ice sheets spread over northern Asia, Europe, and North America, signaling the start of the most recent ice age. Photo by James St. John (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). 2020 Monsoon Review - National Weather Service Large glaciers were found at higher elevations, and temperatures were cool. As of June 2022, it was more than 90% contained. However, the Southwest is located between the mid-latitude and subtropical atmospheric circulation regimes, and this positioning relative to shifts in these . Every part of the Southwest experienced higher average temperatures between 2000 and 2020 than the long-term average (1895-2020). (2019)Biology Letters15: 20190114(Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, images cropped, reconfigured, resized, and relabeled). Sprawling development of Phoenix, Arizona, a city in the Sonoran Desert, 2009. National Drought Mitigation Center. At the close of the Mesozoic, global climatealthough warmer than todaywas cooler than at the start of the era. By the late Carboniferous, North America had collided with Gondwana, leading to the formation of Pangaeaa supercontinent composed of nearly all the landmass on Earth. The March-April-May (MAM) 2023 temperature outlook favors below-normal. The formation of precipitation also causes electrical charging of particles in the atmosphere, which in turn produces lightning. Elevation does, however, play a key role in precipitation received throughout the Southwest. Extreme high temperatures. The Southwest's overall average high temperature of 19.2C (66.6F) and average low of 2.8C (37.0F) are indicative of a varied climate, one much less uniform than that found in many other parts of the United States. Scattered pockets of drier, Mediterranean temperatures can also be found. The Southwest relies on the slow melt of mountain snowpack throughout the spring and summer, when water demands are highest. Here on Earth: Regional Guides to Earth Science, Earth Science of the Southwestern United States, Climate of the Southwestern United States. Although there has so far been little regional change in the Southwests annual precipitation, the areas average precipitation is expected to decrease in the south and remain stable or increase in the north. Although on the western edge of the North American Monsoon, California plant geography indicates it makes a large contribution to the states southern flora. The North American monsoon, variously known as the Southwest monsoon, the Mexican monsoon, the New Mexican monsoon, or the Arizona monsoon is a pattern of pronounced increase in thunderstorms and rainfall over large areas of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico, typically occurring between June and mid-September.During the monsoon, thunderstorms are fueled by daytime heating . Ill be back on my regular beat in a couple of weeks with the September ENSO update. In New Mexico, for example, average annual precipitation ranges from less than 25 centimeters (10 inches) within the Great Plains and Basin and Range regions to more than 50 centimeters (20 inches) at the higher elevations to the northwest. The climate of the eastern plains is fairly uniform, with hot, windy summers and thunderstorms. The Santa Catalina Mountains near Tucson, Arizona are surrounded desert in which saguaro cacti grow. Frequent showers and thunderstorms continue well into the summer. Home Regions Southwest Key Points: Data source: National Drought Mitigation Center, 20213Web update: April2021. Pleistocene Lake Bonneville. The population of any industrialized and particularly wealthy country produces pollution; the majority of these emissions come from the use of petroleum. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Climate change is affecting the Southwest's water resources, terrestrial ecosystems, coastal and marine environments, agriculture, and energy supply. Water supply is an important issue in the Southwest, and communities will need to adapt to changes in precipitation, snowmelt, and runoff as the climate changes. Trees killed by bark beetles at Cameron Pass, Colorado, 2011. Fig. I listened to the Southwest Climate Podcast from CLIMAS, the Climate Assessment for the Southwest, to learn more about what affects the monsoon and its rainfall, and how Monsoon 2021 is shaping up, and reached out to the podcast co-hosts, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins, for help with this post. By the end of the Cretaceous, uplift to the west was great enough that the resulting hills shed large amounts of sand and gravel in an easterly direction, pushing the shoreline eastward until sediment (combined with a worldwide drop in sea level) filled the area formerly occupied by the Western Interior Seaway. A= Tropical (equatorial),B= Arid,C= Temperate (warm temperate),D= Continental (cold),E= polar. Andrews Glacier in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, at two points in time. Wildfire risk map for the United States. Calf Canyon-Hermit Creek Fire near Holman, New Mexico, on May 8, 2022. Snowfall will be below normal in most areas that normally receive snow, with the snowiest periods in early to mid-January and early February. The coldest periods will be in late November, mid- and late December, and mid-January. In the podcast episode 2021a generational monsoon? Zack listed some of the factors that influence how much moisture is available to the monsoon, including the position of the high-pressure area, wind patterns, and transient weather features. Photo by Bob Wick, Bureau of Land Management (flickr, public domain). The rainy season would have been critical for Native Americans for thousands of years, and, for some Native American tribes, continues to be so. The number of days with temperatures above 35C (95F) and nights above 24C (75F) has been steadily increasing since 1970, and the warming is projected to continue. Summer temperatures on the South Rim, at 7000 feet (2134 meters), are especially pleasant from 50 to about 85 F (10s to 20s C). For extended periods from 2002 to 2005 and from 2012 to2020, nearly the entire region was abnormally dry or even drier (see Figure 2). July 1August 22, 2021 precipitation shown as a percent of the average July 1August 22, based on 19792020. Photo by Stefan Klein (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and resized). He pointed out that ENSO does influence Pacific tropical storms, which can supply moisture to the monsoon. While this will help with the ongoing drought in the southwest, in many regions the precipitation deficit has been building for a long time. At the very end of the Cretaceous, the Gulf Coast experienced an enormous disruption when a large asteroid or bolide collided with Earth in what is now the northern Yucatn Peninsula in Mexico. The warming conditions alone can be impactful, drying out soils quicker during breaks in monsoon rainfall, for example (2). In the latest Cretaceous, sea level dropped again and the western Southwest became a broad coastal plain that hosted lush forests, abundant dinosaurs, and large swamps.
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